Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Mar 07 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Fri, 13 Apr 07

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 2.86 858.00 -28.68% -14.03% -47.37%
DNDN 10-Jan-07 248 4.01 1,002.48 12.93 3,206.64 178.66% 219.87% 21,512.65%
PTR 23-Jan-07 8 127.17 1,025.36 117.09 936.72 0.62% -8.64% -39.37%
IFN 13-Feb-07 24 41.76 1,010.24 38.14 915.36 -2.46% -9.39% -55.09%
FXI 27-Feb-07 10 95.00 958.00 102.43 1,024.30 3.36% 6.92% 119.99%
LMGGF 28-Feb-07 73 13.55 997.15 16.62 1,213.19 22.65% 21.67% 988.71%
FDG 20-Mar-07 44 22.68 1,005.92 22.10 997.04 n/a -0.88% -27.67%
cash       3,002.85   9,167.87      
Overall 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   18,319.12 78.78% 83.19% 1,207.92%
Global HF 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   10,271.34 0.87% 2.71% 12.04%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07     2,415.29   2,421.64 0.23% 0.26% 1.12%

Position = security the portfolio owns
Purchased = date position acquired
Shares = number of shares the portfolio owns
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission)
Now = price per share
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the statement (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (blank for positions new since last report)
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security to date
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for this portfolio is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2006 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.4%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 11.0%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 3% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: There was a flurry of activity in March as we bought and sold two options positions, plus another new equity position, each with an allocation of $1,000 (10% of the starting value of the portfolio). The commission for each of the four options transactions was $15 instead of the usual $8.

• 9 Mar – Bought 9 UKODA (DNDN Apr $5 calls) for $105/option
• 9 Mar – Bought 5 UKOKA (DNDN Apr $5 puts) for $200/option
• 20 Mar – Bought 44 FDG for $22.68/shr
• 30 Mar – Sold 9 UKODA (DNDN Apr $5 calls) for $900/option
• 30 Mar – Sold 5 UKOKA (DNDN Apr $5 puts) for $5/option

Comments: LOL we hope you are not expecting to see +79% every third month after this (or even ever again)! And no, we are not expecting the portfolio to end the year north of $120,000, which is the pace we are on here. To produce such a guady stat, we just got lucky, not only in the way the Dendreon story played out, but when it played out…a win like this would not have had as big an impact on the port in six or twelve months (at least, we hope it wouldn’t…guess if our performance in the interim sucks, then it would have). We will say that while we do not expect to gain $8,000 again in a single month, should the FDA approve Provenge by around 15 May, our DNDN could be worth another $6,000 or $7,000 from here all by itself.

As for the other big movers this month, check out the latest updates on TMY (down 29%) and LMGGF (up 23%).

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