Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Archive for June, 2007

Transmeridian (TMY) update #4

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 18 Jun 07

Transmeridian Exploration had a couple of announcements today, neither a surprize and neither particularly good news. The first announcement was that they are selling 400,000 more shares of TMY stock and thus diluting the holdings of all of us existing shareholders. There wasn’t really any choice in the matter as the company is nearly out of cash and oil production has not ramped up fast enough to cover the operating expenses, to say nothing of the ongoing new exploratory drilling program. The second announcement was a sort of “no-news-is-good-news” update on management’s attempts to shop the company, or at least the license to the Kazakhstani South Alibek field (which from a valuation point of view, essentially is the company). Essentially, there have been multiple expressions of interest and management are furnishing insider data to prospective purchasers on a confidential basis. Here we are hoping that a deal gets struck in 3Q07, or failing that, that we see some dramatic production news.

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SELL LionOre Mining International (LMGGF)

Posted by intelledgement on Fri, 15 Jun 07

It’s all over but the shouting.

As it has become evident that no additional offers are forthcoming to rival Norilsk’s all-cash C$27.50/share offer for all outstanding shares of LMGGF, we are taking advantage of the support offer announced today by the two companies to conveniently tender our shares and save the commission on a sale. Since making their offer on 23 May, Norilsk have aggressively pursued regulatory approval for the merger and obtained it in South Africa, Botswana, and Australia, where LionOre’s main operations are located, as well as several other jurisdictions. No point in waiting around here any longer when other opportunities beckon.

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May 07 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Wed, 13 Jun 07

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 2.30 690.00 -15.75% -30.86% -59.78%
PTR 23-Jan-07 8 127.17 1,025.36 129.24 1,049.93   15.25% 2.40% 6.99%
IFN 13-Feb-07 24 41.76 1,010.24 43.29 1038.96 8.69% 2.84% 10.04%
FXI 27-Feb-07 10 95.00 958.00 112.35 1,123.50 6.71   17.28% 86.99%
LMGGF 28-Feb-07 73 13.55 997.15 26.65 1,945.45 58.07% 95.10% 1,320.24%
FDG 20-Mar-07 44 22.68 1,005.92 29.03 1,301.96 20.76% 29.43% 270.12%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 19.72 2,543.88 42.07% 41.24% 813.95%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 29.90 1,704.30 -2.73% -5.95% -40.59%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 11.62 1,835.96 n/a 2.10% 132.73%
cash       -1,405.96   5,355.29      
Overall 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   18,589.23 -1.65% 85.89% 361.86%
Global HF 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   10,669.53 2.04% 6.70% 17.34%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07     2,415.29   2,604.52 3.15% 7.83% 20.46%

Position = security the portfolio owns
Purchased = date position acquired
Shares = number of shares the portfolio owns
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission)
Now = price per share
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the statement (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (blank for positions new since last report)
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security to date
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for this portfolio is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2006 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.4%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 11.0%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 3% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: One new purchase this month…again, we allocated $1800 for this buy instead of $1000 as the size of the portfolio at the end of April was over $18,000. (Each new position is still targeted at 10% of the portfolio, but as the overall value is up, so is the amount of money allocated to the purchase.)

• 22 May – Bought 158 NBIX for $11.33/shr

Comments: A very active month. Aside from the Dendreon debacle (down 58% and sold), we had very positive news from Élan (up 40%), and we still have a takeover battle raging for Lionore (up 58%). On balance, it was a bad month, our first loss of the year, and adding insult to injury, we were spanked by both the hedgies and the NASDAQ. Still-in-all, let’s not lose perspective here: overall we are up 86% compared to the NASDAQ’s 8% gains year-to-date and 7% for the Greenwich Alternative Investments hedge fund index.

Posted in B.3 Spec Reports | Leave a Comment »

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) update

Posted by intelledgement on Tue, 12 Jun 07

Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) announced after the close of the market today that they had resubmitted their new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for indiplon, their prospective insomnia product. The resubmitted NDA is a response to the approvable letter issued by the FDA in May 2006 with respect to the company’s original NDA for 5mg and 10mg dose capsules; the company is not currently responding to the nonapprovable letter issued back then for the 20mg tablets.

NBIX management expect the FDA to respond within six months.

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