Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Jul 07 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 09 Aug 07

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 1.80 540.00 2.27% -45.89% -65.81%
PTR 23-Jan-07 8 127.17 1,025.36 144.46 1,171.69 -2.84%   14.27% 29.41%
IFN 13-Feb-07 24 41.76 1,010.24 45.75 1098.00 4.81% 8.69% 19.85%
FXI 27-Feb-07 10 95.00 958.00 139.91 1,399.10 8.58% 46.04% 145.54%
FDG 20-Mar-07 44 22.68 1,005.92 33.11 1,508.23 1.13% 49.94% 204.14%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 18.73 2,416.17 -14.59% 34.15% 148.28%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 32.30 1,841.10   13.10% 1.60% 5.74%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 10.17 1,606.86 -9.44% -10.64% -44.39%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 4.40 2,486.00 n/a 30.79% 23,101.92%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 3.72 1,677.72 n/a -11.59% -97.65%
cash       -4,207.25   3,464.45      
Overall 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   19,209.32 0.90% 92.09% 212.94%
Global HF 03-Jan-07     10,000.00   10,811.83 0.40% 8.12% 21.24%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07     2,415.29   2,546.27 -2.19% 5.42% 13.92%

Position = security the portfolio owns
Purchased = date position acquired
Shares = number of shares the portfolio owns
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission)
Now = price per share
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the statement (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (blank for positions new since last report)
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security to date
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for this portfolio is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2006 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.4%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 11.0%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 3% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: Added two resource plays this month, one gold prospector and one black gold prospector.

News:

  • TMY, 1 Jul—Ouch! Dispute over gas flaring forces Transmeridian to shut down production for two weeks so they can get permission to flare until they can fix the problem
  • DNDN, 15 Jul—ok, we don’t own this anymore, but we still rooting for the guys with prostate cancer to get their Provenge
  • TMY, 16 Jul—dispute with Kazakhstani government over gas flaring resolved but agreement needs to be approved; all production remains shut down for up to another two weeks
  • ELN, 19 Jul—bad news from Europe for Élan
  • VRTX, 25 Jul—good preliminary results from phase 2 testing on telaprevir
  • TMY, 29 Jul—ok, now the story is the agreement has not been approved and the shutdown might last until November (earliest TMY can fix the problem)
  • ELN, 31 Jul—good news from USA for Élan

Comments: Another modest month, with a 1% gain—enough to beat the hedgies (+0.4%) and the NASDAQ (-2%). While on the surface, the port appears to have had a quiet month, some of the components made a lot of noise, principally BQI which was up 31% in the two-and-a-half weeks since we bought in on the strength of strong reserve numbers, and our biotechs, which had their typical adventures and misadventures (VRTX +13%, NBIX -9%, ELN -15%). Plus FXI was up 9% for the month and our new gold miner is already down 12% in twelve days. LOL just another quiet month at the spec port. Overall we must be doing something right as we are +92% so far in 2007 compared to +8% for both the Greenwich Alternative Investment’s hedge fund index and +5% for the NASDAQ.

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