Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Élan (ELN) update #5

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 25 Oct 07

Élan (ELN) announced their 3Q07 results today and as usual, they lost money…although they lost two-thirds less money than a year ago and revenues were up 43% as Tysabri income begins to kick in ($100MM in revenues worldwide in the quarter split between ELN and partner BIIB)…but the most interesting point was this statement by CFO Shane Cooke: “We were particularly pleased that during the quarter we exceeded the 15,000 patient target which we need for Tysabri to breakeven in the commercial setting for the MS indication. At the end of the quarter, there were about 17,000 patients on therapy, including about 1,000 in clinical trials.”

We (Intelledgement) are projecting 17,500 paying customers by year end (not counting those in clinical trials), so things are nicely on track here. But wait, there’s more…Cooke also said, “We are optimistic that we will better our previous target of reporting Adjusted EBITDA losses of about $50 million for the full year. In the longer term, the continued growth in revenue from Tysabri will drive our return to profitability and, with Biogen Idec, we are targeting to have 100,000 patients on therapy by the end of 2010.”

LOL that is a very fine number…we have been projecting 101,000 patients and $58/shr by the end of 2010…this is not including any AAB-001 revenue, although the scenario presumes the pipeline remains healthy…if ELN succeed in launching AAB-001 Phase 3 testing by early 2008, results could be available by the end of 2009 which means—if the results are good—the product could be approved before the end of 2010, in which case we should have to revise our revenue and valuation projections upwards.

True, tough work, but someone has to do it. 🙂

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