Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Archive for November, 2007

BPZ Energy (BZP) update

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 26 Nov 07

Our Peru-centric Houston-based E&P company, BPZ Energy (BZP) today announced the signing of the contracts with Petroperu—Peru’s state-owned energy company—that grant BZP exclusive exploration and development rights for blocks XXII (948,000 acres) and XXIII (248,000 acres) respectively. There is a seven-year exploration phase and if BZP fulfills the minimum exploration requirements and chooses to develop the properties commercially, they have an additional 23 years to produce oil and 33 years to produce natural gas for each block, respectively. With the addition of these two blocks, BZP now owns exclusive licenses to explore and develop a total of 2.4MM acres—including 739,000 acres offshore—of Peruvian territory.

The ceremony—involving a total of 12 companies (in addition to Petroperu) who signed similar contracts for a total of 18 blocks—was a big deal in Peru, hosted by the country’s president, Alan Garcia, at the Presidential Palace and broadcast live last Wednesday (21 Nov 08). BZP CEO Manuel Pablo Zúñiga Pflücker was one of the speakers, and talking about the ceremony later, he stated, “As a native of Peru, I wanted to stress that BPZ Energy has been doing the right things here since the beginning of our operations to develop hydrocarbons, and to give back to the people and communities of Peru.”

Nice to be invested in a potentially highly lucrative endeavor that should be good for everyone (profits for us, cheap clean power for Peru and Ecuador, and crude production that will diminish Peru’s need to import oil). 🙂

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Oilsands Quest (BQI) update #2

Posted by intelledgement on Wed, 21 Nov 07

Oilsands Quest (BQI) announced yet another round of financing yesterday shortly before the market close—their third this year…and then today they announced pricing for the offering, and considerably scaled it down. Yesterday’s announcement envisaged a huge offering: 41.5MM shares (when all associated warrants are exercised) and up to an additional 5MM shares (including those distributed when all warrants are exercised) if the offering were oversubscribed. Today, the size of the offering was scaled down to 11MM shares/5.5MM associated warrants—each share comes with half a warrant—priced at US$5 for the US market and 2.6MM shares priced at CDN$6.17 for the Canadian market, and up to an additional 1.65MM shares/0.825MM associated warrants if the offering is oversubscribed. Each warrant entitles the owner to purchase a share of BQI for $6.75 for up to two years following the closing of the deal.

Not surprizingly, the stock—which closed at $5.35 on Monday scuttled down to $5.03 by the end of trading today. And short term it is not a bullish sign that demand was apparently not as high as management anticipated. With the US economy facing possible recession, investors are likely to be at the skeptical end of the scale on oilsands development, which certainly needs a high-demand environment to be viable. But presumably anyone who is buying at $5 with an option to get an additional half-share for every share purchased at $6.75 is not expecting the stock to head much lower. The transaction is expected to close by 5 December; if the underwriters don’t take the extra shares, that would be another sign of weak demand (for the stock at least).

If all these shares (including the extra ones) are sold and warrants are exercised, the float will increase from 184MM to 203MM. Oilsands processing is an expensive proposition and our model anticipates another 200% of dilution over the next eight years—to 600MM shares—if the company remains independent in order to finance testing and development of production capacity. So we are not going to get overly excited over the pricing/market demand for this particular offering.

However, we will keep an eye on what happens by 5 December.

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BUY BPZ Resources (BZP)

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 19 Nov 07

We have been watching this stock closely since mid-summer, hoping for a pullback, and today’s announcement of a potentially dilutive shelf registration has done the trick, with shares selling below $10 for the first time in a month. (Of course, we would have been better off buying it right away in August in the fives, but hindsight is always 20-20.)

BPZ Resources is a Texas-based late early-stage E&P, who have been methodically developing properties in Peru for the last six years. BPZ Resources was formed in 2001 by the principals of the former energy consulting firm, BPZ & Associates. BZP president/CEO Manuel Pablo Zúñiga Pflücker—the “Z” in BPZ & Associates—has spent the past 20 years in the international oil and gas business, and has been involved in projects throughout Latin America and other areas of the world ranging from exploitation of marginal oil and gas fields to frontier exploration projects. His father and chairman of the BPZ Resources board of directors, Dr. Fernando Zúñiga y Rivero, was Energy Division project officer of The World Bank, where he planned and implemented exploration promotion projects in 58 countries, ranging from East and West Africa, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia to Latin America, from 1979 to 1996. Dr. Zúñiga y Rivero has fifty years of experience in the international energy industry starting as an exploration geologist, biostratigrapher, and exploration head of an Exxon affiliate in Peru and continuing as exploration production manager, integrated operations manager, general manager, and ultimately serving as Chairman and CEO of Petróleos del Peru, the national oil company of Peru. So these guys know as much or more about the oil business in Peru as anyone alive and they are also well-connected. And insider stock ownership is running about 20% so the interests of these really smart, knowledgeable, and connected folks are well aligned with ours.

So, what have these smart guys put together for us? Oodles of potentially good stuff, and a substantial dollop of potentially great stuff, as it happens. The company holds licenses to explore and produce oil and natural gas over 1.7 million acres of Peru (on shore) plus another 700 thousand acres offshore within Peruvian national water. For the most part, these are properties previously licensed to large oil companies which are known to have oil and gas but were not economical to develop at then-current prices.

BZP signed a contract for their offshore acreage, known as Block Z-1, in November 2001. Tenneco and Belco Oil & Gas drilled 18 wells within this property in the 70s and 80s. They were looking for oil but found mostly natural gas; as there was no market for NG at the time, they gave up. BZP acquired four offshore platforms constructed by Tenneco and Belco in connection with its Block Z-1 property, and completed the refurbishment of one of the offshore platforms—CX-11 in the Corvina field—and intends to maintain all of the platforms for use throughout the life of the Block Z-1 contract. These platforms revert back to the Government of Peru at the end of the contract, provided they are in good working condition, with no further obligation to BZP to dismantle or remove them. To date, BZP have drilled three wells, all near CX-11, two of which appear to be capable of producing both natural gas and oil in commercially viable quantities and the third of which appears viable as a NG producer. The Block Z-1 contract runs up to 30 years for oil and 40 years for NG.

The company signed a second contract for Block XIX (500 thousand acres) in December 2003. If their exploration efforts are successful, this contract can also be extended for up to 30 years for oil and 40 years for natural gas. Earlier this year, the company completed shooting 200 kilometers of 2-D seismic in Block XIX. Based on the results of the 2-D seismic survey and in order to comply with the requirements under the next phase of the license contract, BZP expect to begin drilling operations (one well) in Block XIX in late 2008.

BZP expect to sign two more contracts for, respectively, Block XXII (900 thousand acres) and Block XXIII (200 thousand acres) later this month

The company’s master plan is to finance the development of the natural gas in Block Z-1 and construction of a NG-fired power plant (160 megawatts) to sell electricity, primarily to Peru and, secondarily, to Ecuador. Peru has growing demand for electricity and is primarily dependent on hydropower, which supply vulnerable is vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather. Supplemental power generation is currently supplied by diesel- or fuel oil-fired plants, which are much more expensive than natural gas would be. The power plant is to be financed with a $160MM loan from the International Finance Corporation, which is a The World Bank member—thank you, Dr. Zúñiga y Rivero—and owns 9% of BZP. The plant will be constructed at Nueva Esparanza near a substation with transmission capability to both Peru and Ecuador (180 megawatts each), so the output of the BZP plant could theoretically be doubled—and there is room to do this—should demand warrant it. At 160 megawatts, the plant will need 14 bcf of NG/year—which, easily transported from BZP’s nearby fields—a ten-mile pipeline from the CX-11 platform to the power plant is on the drawing boards—would enable the plant to be profitable presuming 80%+ utilization.

This plan is good, but things got complicated (and potentially great) a year ago when the first well spudded at Corvina (21XD) in pursuit of the natural gas everyone knew was there surprisingly produced 6000 BBLS/day of oil! (In addition to the 60MM cf/day of NG that was expected, that is.) Apparently the Tenneco and Belco folks missed something.

At this point, the company has not published any proven reserves estimates. However, that is likely to change in 2008 as production from Corvina (Block Z-1) ramps up and drilling starts in Block XIX. There is now no doubt that the properties contain oil and natural gas, but at this point, how much is commercially obtainable is anybody’s guess. But with respect to guesses about Peruvian geology as it relates to energy matters, putting our money on Zúñiga Pflücker and his troops seems like a good bet.

The savvy management here reminds us of another of our speculative early-stage E&P plays, BQI. And, as with BQI, BPZ Resources has yet to book their first dollar of revenue. However, that is about to change: last month, the company leased two tankers from the Peruvian navy and expects to begin selling 2500 BBLS/day as early as this month (ahead of the originally planned early-2008).

The immediate prospect of revenue begs the question of taxes. Virtually all of BZP’s eggs are in the Peruvian basket (there is one small project in Ecuador where the company has a 10% non-working interest). The government in Peru has been reasonably stable by Latin American standards for the last quarter century. In 2006, Alan Garcia was elected president and—benefiting from the experience of his tumultuous pre-Fujimoro first term—has so far proven to be a mainstream moderate (which in Latin America is to say, left of center but pro-trade). As things stand now, Peru’s taxes on prospective oil and natural gas sales by BZP would be relatively moderate compared to many other countries.

Peru stands to benefit significantly by virtue of the work BPZ Resources has undertaken. First, of course, there is the prospect of cheaper, reliable electricity. Also, Peru is a net importer of oil and insofar as BZP develop internal resources and cut into that outflow of funds, it’s all good.

Again, as with BQI, one major shareholder concern is dilution. The development of these properties is going to take a lot of money, and while the company’s debt levels are low and they should be able to borrow some of the needed funds, no doubt there will be additional sales of stock. As of 30 September, dilution over the trailing twelve months amounted to 25%…and that was before this latest shelf registration. So this remains an area to watch. The good news is that management are in the same boat we are, as shareholders, so they have a big incentive to watch out for our mutual interests.

Bottom line: BPZ Resources, a seller in a seller’s market, appear to be a $600MM company on the road to becoming a $3B+ company a few years down the road. A solid, macro-consistent play.

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Sterlite Industries India Ltd. (SLT) update

Posted by intelledgement on Sun, 18 Nov 07

Sterlite management unveiled a presentation detailing their plans to enter the Indian power market last week. They outline the already large shortfall in subcontinental electricity supply and projections that it will worsen as the ongoing buildout continues. They enumerate changes in policy and market behavior that are engendering conditions favorable to private power providers, and they discuss the irony that although India has the fourth largest coal reserves, the country currently has to import coal to meet demand. Their conclusion is that given Sterlite’s core competencies, conditions are ripe for the company to bid on coal-fired electrical production plant projects, and they provide details on two already-announced projects totaling 3600 megawatts of power-generation capacity, and two follow-on projects amounting to an additional 6000 megawatts.

Well worth a gander.

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Oct 07 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Wed, 14 Nov 07

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 1.82 546.00 -12.50% -45.29% -51.90%
PTR 23-Jan-07 8 127.17 1,025.36 262.60 2,138.58 41.86% 108.57% 160.00%
IFN 13-Feb-07 24 41.76 1,010.24 64.75 1,554.00 19.24% 53.82% 83.12%
FXI 27-Feb-07 10 95.00 958.00 218.51 2,185.10 21.39% 128.09% 240.17%
FDG 20-Mar-07 44 22.68 1,005.92 36.42 1,680.27 -6.09% 67.04% 129.99%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 23.80 3,070.20 13.12% 70.46% 152.85%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 32.34 1,843.38 -15.80% 1.73% 3.25%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 9.25 1,461.50 -7.50% -18.72% -37.33%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 5.43 3,067.05 -12.10% 61.36% 389.75%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 3.60 1,623.60 -11.11% -14.44% -42.18%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 3.60 2,206.80 -11.11% 16.39% 125.97%
BZH 18-Sep-07 -178 11.18 -1,982.04 11.23 -1,998.94 -36.12% -0.85% -6.96%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 25.97 2,882.67 n/a 31.02% 4347.96%
cash -6,321.50 1,731.168
Overall 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 23,991.88 7.34% 139.92% 189.20%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,233.98 2.96% 12.34% 15.16%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,859.12 5.83% 18.38% 22.72%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (blank for positions new since last report)
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security to date
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for this portfolio is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2006 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.4%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 11.0%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: We were suffering seller’s remorse over our BRLC, which hit $5.20 the day after we sold it for $4.99, but it closed the month at $4.51—while SLT was up 30%—so we’re feeling better about it now.

News:

Comments: A second consecutive good month for everyone: +7% to a new all-time high for us, +6% for the NASDAX, and plus 3% for the hedgies. The Fed continued to signal lower interest rates and increased liquidity to counter the housing and credit crises, and at the prospect of still looser credit driving continued USA consumption, our emerging market-related issues rocked this month (PTR up 41%, SLT up 31%, FXI up 21%, IFN up 19%). There was good news for ELN (up 13% on solid quarterly results and strong tysabri sales) which is good, bad news for GSS (down 11% on weak quarterly results) and for VRTX (down 16% on an apparent delay in the Phase 3 testing for telaprevir) which is bad, no news for BQI which is apparently good (up 23%), no news for TMY which was definitely bad (down 13% on the continued failure of a buyout to materialize), and good news for BZH (up 36% after settling a legal wrangle with their bondholders and securing increased credit), which is bad as we are short that stock. Overall we are now +140% so far in 2007 compared to +18% for the NASDAQ and +12% for the Greenwich Alternative Investment’s hedge fund index.

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SELL SHORT Wachovia Corporation (WB)—same barrel, more fish

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 12 Nov 07

It ain’t just shoes dropping.

We got flip flops, we got sneakers, we got pumps, we got high heels, we got hiking boots, we got galoshes…we talked about the collapse of the housing market in our recommendation to short Beazer Homes (BZH) a couple of months back. Well, duh…the destruction of subprime mortgages—which become worthless when the underlying value of the house falls below the value of the debt owed on the mortgage and the lender defaults—is hurting anyone holding mortgage-backed securities—many of which are complex derivatives and not so easy to price even when things are going well. When things are going badly, no one can say what a lot of these arcane securities are worth for sure…but it is a sure bet that the value is a lot less than the bank paid for them, and even with all the writeoffs to date, we think it is a good bet that the value is less than the banks are telling us.

Again, most of what you need to know about the banks in general—and Wachovia in particular—is visible in this chart of bank stock prices over the last 18 months. Included in this chart are Bank of America, BB&T, Citibank, SuntTrust, Wachovia, and Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo, one of the best-run financial institutions on the planet, has seen their stock decline 8% in the last eighteen months…and all the others have fared worse, with declines ranging from 12% to 34% (for Citibank). Wachovia’s stock (WB) is the second worst of the lot, down 28%.

The steady drumbeat of decline has been fed by a pattern of negative surprizes—or, as the Wall Street cliché of choice goes, shoes dropping—as each quarter, the update of how badly the banks’ portfolios of securities has deteriorated produces worse—and, generally, worse-than-expected—news. Just last Friday, Wachovia became the latest bank to announce a significant writeoff: last Friday, they announced a $1.1B decline in the value of their subprime mortgage-backed securities just in the month of October.

And it is not just mortgage-backed securities that are providing the negative momentum. Many financial institutions have other complex derivative securities on their books whose performance tends to amplify volatility in dimly understood but potentially scary ways. Pricing these in a sharply declining market is both difficult and depressing (both of one’s net worth and mood).

And guess what: a whole new category of designer shoes are hanging up there along the power line, poised like cute little pair daggers of Damocles threatening to rain down at any moment: credit debt defaults as the consumer spending well runs dry. Hasn’t happened yet, but with the combined effects of the decline in real estate values and the decline of the dollar as the Fed pumps liquidity into the economy and lowers interest rates are bringing us closer and closer to the part of the road the power lines cross.

We could easily go with Citibank for our short position here, but are passing them over in favor of the hometown favorite, Charlotte-based Wachovia.

Wachovia is one of the top-five banks in the USA, with assets as of the end of FY06 of over $700B. Founded in 1879, the bank provides just about every financial service imaginable exclusive of insurance: personal and commercial banking, investing and investment management, personal and commercial loans, credit cards, investment banking, and international trade services. The bank is profitable, with earnings of $7.7B in 2006 amounting to 16.6% of revenues, down slightly from 18.5% of revenues in 2005.

Sounds good, but in addition to their own portfolio of problem loans, in May of 2006, Wachovia management made a bad mistake, agreeing to pay top dollar ($25.5B) to acquire Golden West Financial (GDW). The merger extended Wachovia’s customer base in Texas, Florida, and California…markets that were just about to be hit hard, harder, and hardest by the bursting of the housing bubble. And you guessed it: turns out GDW was one of the most aggressive purveyors of option ARMs, and had mucho soon-to-be problematic loans on their books.

And who knows what their derivatives exposure (exclusive of mortgage-backed securities) is? For sure they have significant exposure to potentially bad loans beyond real estate—commercial paper and consumer debt come to mind.

It’s a tough situation to be in: when you’ve just shot yourself in the foot, just about the last thing you need is to have it be raining shoes. We are looking for a 40% decline here on waves of “unexpected” bad news; when and if we get there, we will reconnoiter and decide where to go next.

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Transmeridian (TMY) update #11

Posted by intelledgement on Sun, 11 Nov 07

Transmeridian (TMY) had a second consecutive “stealth” release of their quarterly results Friday, choosing again to forgo not only a conference call with analysts and investors but even a press release. And why not, with literally almost nothing to report, in the sense that with production from the company’s South Alibek field in Kazahkstan shut down for the entire three months, only a piddle of barrels of oil from inventory were sold (111/day) in the quarter. (Guess you know you have a dog of a stock when management get in the habit of burying news update after news update on Friday afternoons following the close of the market for the week, obviously counting on the weekend, if not to cause investors to forget the info, at least not to be able to sell instantly upon learning of it.) Production for the first nine months of the year are now averaging 2200 bpd, which is far short of the minimum 4000 bpd needed for the company to sustain operations on a cash neutral basis, to say nothing of the 2007 target of 6500-to-8000 bpd the company hoped to produce in order to be able to service their debt and fund development drilling.

But that was then and now the focus is on management’s efforts to sell the company, or at least the South Alibek field license. No new news on that front (and thus another incentive to eschew a conference call).

The two slivers of good news were that international sales of oil went off at a record $66.48/barrel, and even with this dead quarter, production for the first nine months of the year overall is still running 24% ahead of last year. Course, that says more about the company’s pathetic 2006 performance than about 2007.

Anyway, we TMY shareholders continue to wait for Godot here, hoping against hope that when he arrives he won’t have blown his paycheck on wine or philosophy books but never-the-less will be in a buying mood, and ideally in the market for oil to go with his surfeit of vinegar.

Posted in B.2 Spec Equity Updates | Leave a Comment »

Golden Star Resources (GSS) update #3

Posted by intelledgement on Wed, 07 Nov 07

Golden Star Resources (GSS) announced their 3Q07 results yesterday, and in light of the preannouncement disappointment discussed here last month, they were’t too shabby. The company did lose $12.7MM in the quarter, spending $707 to produce each ounce of gold (which they then sold for $681…see the problem? LOL). The good news is that [a] the losses were a tad less than recently projected, [b] the number of ounces produced was an all-time high record 70M ounces, indicating good progress towards our expectation of 400M+ ounces of production in 2008 (although were one in a mood to be nitpicky, one might consider ramped up production when losing $26 on every ounce to be less than stellar news LOL), and [c] as the BIOX® plant gets up to speed in the fourth quarter and beyond, it is reasonable to expect higher production at a lower per/ounce cost.

In another good news/bad news development, heavy rains have continued in Ghana during the last three months. The good news is strategic: the back of the drought appears to have been broken and the government have lifted hydropower rationing restrictions, which means that going forward electricity to run GSS’s operations should be more readily accessible and cheaper. The bad news is that tactically, the rains slowed down production in the third quarter and thus contributed to increased costs. On balance, a good deal for the company.

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Beazer Homes (BZH) update #5

Posted by intelledgement on Tue, 06 Nov 07

More grist for our Beazer (BZH) short mill yesterday and today. Yesterday, management released “unaudited and preliminary fourth quarter financial and operating data” indicating that a charge of $230MM will be required reflecting the cost of inventory impairments and option abandonments. The company did manage to reduce inventory by 14% from last quarter (down 30% from a year ago), and improved their cash position from $129MM on 30 Jun 07 to $460MM as of 30 Sep 07. However, they also announced they had fired 25% of their work force in October—so expect another charge for 1Q08—and had decided to suspend their dividend. Audited 4Q07 numbers—not to mention 3Q07 results and  restatements of earlier periods—await the outcome of several investigations into Beazer operations, as detailed here previously.

Today,  a shareholder advisory group whose union pension fund clients own 300,000 shares of BZH called for the firing of Beazer CEO Ian McCarthy. According to a report by Forbes, “McCarthy allowed Beazer to violate federal law, improperly account for land development costs and sale-leaseback transactions, and provide undisclosed loans to executives, all while pocketing $57 million in total compensation over the last five years–among the highest pay packages for a CEO of a company of Beazer’s size.”

McCarthy’s strategic and tactical judgments in leading Beazer may not have been optimal, but suffering BZH shareholders can console themselves that his investment management timing remains sterling: he sold 180,000 shares of BZH for $43 last November, pocketing a cool $7MM…right before the big decline began. BZH closed today at $10.47.

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Oilsands Quest (BQI) update

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 05 Nov 07

Oilsands Quest (BQI) management released an independent estimate of barrels equivalent of original bitumen in place (OBIP) for their Axe Lake property in Saskatchewan this morning, and The Street was underwhelmed. The estimate was pretty much in line with management’s earlier projections—1.344 billion barrels compared with management’s earlier guesstimate of 1.5 billion. However, evidently, there were shareholders out there who were hoping for more, as the price per share had just been bid up to a new 2007 closing high of $6.38 yesterday…today was a different story as the stock closed at $5.57, down 13% in one day. (Welcome to the spec port! LOL)

Management also discussed plans for this winter’s drilling (eight rigs) and for the Axe Lake reservoir field test program expected to be run next year, subject to regulatory approval. According to the press release, “This program is designed to evaluate the reservoir’s response to varying temperatures and pressures of steam. These tests will contribute data to the design of the pilot in-situ production program, which is currently planned for start-up in 2009. Oilsands Quest and its technical consultants are evaluating in-situ recovery techniques for the production pilot, with an emphasis on existing techniques that utilize steam and steam with solvents.”

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