Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Feb 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 13 Mar 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 1.25 375.00 -11.95% -36.55% -62.42% -57.14%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 22.77 2,937.33 -10.21% 3.59% 63.09% 71.55%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 17.50 997.50 -14.05% -24.67% -44.95% -49.73%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 5.01 791.58 -7.05% 10.35% -55.98% -65.32%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 4.00 2,260.00 24.22% -1.96% 18.90% 31.49%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 4.12 1,858.12 2.74% 30.38% -2.09% -3.36%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 4.12 2,458.13 2.74% 30.38% 33.20% 74.03%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 20.85 2,314.35 2.26% -20.02% 5.19% 13.39%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 15.77 3,863.65 22.25% 41.06% 60.87% 448.79%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 15.77 2,399.40 22.25% 41.06% 39.40% 5,605.40%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 30.62 -1,781.82 n/a 19.48% 21.56% 1175.96%
cash -6,538.46 5,579.52
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 24,654.01 7.56% 12.86% 146.54% 118.37%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,001.40 1.84% -1.00% 10.01% 8.61%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,271.48 -4.95% -14.36% -5.95% -5.17%

Position = symbol of the security for each position Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)

Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio

Paid = price per share

Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash

Now = price per share as of the date of the report

Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus value of dividends)

Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)

Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07

Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase

Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: A quiet month transaction-wise, as all we did was sell short Wachovia (again) and pay out a WB dividend (when you are short, you have to pay any dividends instead of collecting them).


Comments: Another great month—up 8% in a month where the NASDAQ continues a sharp retreat (down 5% on the heels of a 10% decline in January) and the hedge funds recover nicely (+2%), although they are still down for the year so far. This fund is doing embarassingly well, now up to a record high +147% since inception 14 months ago. We are not doing a very good job of demonstrating why speculating in individual stocks is less desireable than making long term investments in ETFs. But where there is life, there’s hope: the road looks rocky ahead and the odds of hitting a pothole look good. The Fed is still issuing credit and devaluing the dollar as if all those Asian and European purchasers of dollars and Treasury debt are in so deep they have no choice but to throw good money after bad and thus keep financing our debt. (Maybe there is no good money…so it doesn’t matter what you spend it on.) While we still think really bad stuff is likely to be deferred until after the Olympics and election, the risk of a meltdown is signficant here. We feel good about getting back into our Wachovia short (on which we are already up 22% in 28 days). We hope that we will soon be short Beazer again. Meanwhile, we are—hopefully—monitoring our current long positions. The $3/shr management buyout deal for TMY is all-but dead and we hope management will now face reality and accept a third-party offer. VRTX is—we hope—near a bottom here; telaprevir may have been delayed but it is still the best bet out there with respect to hepatitis C. We hope that NBIX will soon—or, failing that, eventually—announce a partnership with respect to their GnRH antagonist candidate drug for fighting endometriosis. We hope GSS shows progress on getting their BIOX plant to work better processing gold mining ore. And we hope BQI continue to progress with respect to their tar sands processing plans in Saskatchewan. And, as every month, we hope things will look clearer in another 30 days.


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