Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #4

Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 13 Apr 09

Dendreon announced earlier tonite that they are holding an investor conference call tomorrow at 0900 EDT to discuss final results of the Provenge IMPACT phase 3 study:

Time:         9:00 AM ET/6:00 AM PT

Date:          14 April 2009

Dial-in:        1-877-419-6594 (within the USA) or +1-719-325-4855 (from outside the USA)

Think 22+%!!

Previous DNDN-related posts:

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One Response to “Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #4”

  1. In light of this announcement, by around 0915 Tuesday, we should know if we will be collecting on our $5 Aug calls (UKOHA) or $5 Aug puts (UKOTA).

    Dendreon need to have achieved a 22%-or-better survival advantage among Provenge patients as opposed to placebo patients to gain FDA approval…which would trigger the collecting-on-calls scenario, as the stock is likely to at least double from today’s close ($7.30). Otherwise, this would be Provenge’s third phase 3 failure in as many tries, and with no other products in sight, the stock is likely to sink south of $1, making our puts look good.

    If the results are good, we may decide to hold some or all of the calls as the price could easily spike much higher than $14 by August. If the results are bad, we will aim to cash in the puts ASAP for $4 apiece or better and look for a more productive place to put the funds.

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