Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #4
Posted by intelledgement on Mon, 13 Apr 09
Dendreon announced earlier tonite that they are holding an investor conference call tomorrow at 0900 EDT to discuss final results of the Provenge IMPACT phase 3 study:
Time: 9:00 AM ET/6:00 AM PT
Date: 14 April 2009
Dial-in: 1-877-419-6594 (within the USA) or +1-719-325-4855 (from outside the USA)
Think 22+%!!
Previous DNDN-related posts:
- BUY Dendreon (DNDN)—potential cure for cancer (10 Jan 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #1—FDA agrees to fast-track review for Provenge (16 Jan 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #2—FDA appoints advisory committee to review Provenge (2 Mar 07)
- BUY Dendreon puts and calls—straddle play (9 Mar 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #3—Feuerstein’s revenue projections (23 Mar 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #4—reviewing the bidding heading into the AC meeting (28 Mar 07)
- SELL Dendreon (DNDN) puts and calls—AC recommends approval! (30 Mar 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #5—we got lucky (30 Mar 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #6—+488% in four months! (10 Apr 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #7—any buy here is speculative (11 Apr 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #8—intelligent debate on Provenge (12 Apr 07)
- Dendreon (DNDN) update #9—why Provenge should be approved (26 Apr 07)
- SELL Dendreon (DNDN)—FDA issues approvable letter (9 May 07)
- Provenge and the FDA—frog meets scorpion (25 May 07)
- The Provenge ad in the Washington Post (15 Jul 07)
- BUY Dendreon (DNDN) puts and calls—straddle play (again) (29 Jan 09)
- Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #1—4Q08 results (12 Mar 09)
- Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #2—did interim data release compromise IMPACT? (25 Mar 09)
- Dendreon options (UKOHA & UKOTA) straddle play update #3—DNDN shares surge 38% (3 Apr 09)
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intelledgement said
In light of this announcement, by around 0915 Tuesday, we should know if we will be collecting on our $5 Aug calls (UKOHA) or $5 Aug puts (UKOTA).
Dendreon need to have achieved a 22%-or-better survival advantage among Provenge patients as opposed to placebo patients to gain FDA approval…which would trigger the collecting-on-calls scenario, as the stock is likely to at least double from today’s close ($7.30). Otherwise, this would be Provenge’s third phase 3 failure in as many tries, and with no other products in sight, the stock is likely to sink south of $1, making our puts look good.
If the results are good, we may decide to hold some or all of the calls as the price could easily spike much higher than $14 by August. If the results are bad, we will aim to cash in the puts ASAP for $4 apiece or better and look for a more productive place to put the funds.