Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Dendreon (DNDN, again) update #3

Posted by intelledgement on Tue, 28 Apr 09

Our biotech speculative play Dendreon (DNDN) today revealed the details of the results of their IMPACT Phase 3 trial of Provenge at the American Urological Association’s annual meeting in Chicago and…they look great!

Provenge reduced the risk of death from prostate cancer by 22.5%—comparing the Provenge arm of the trial with the placebo arm—which beat the 22% bogey which had been set by the FDA in order to prove that the survival advantage was real. Provenge also extended median survival by 4.1 months compared to the placebo (25.8 months versus 21.7 months) and improved three-year survival by 38% compared to the placebo (31.7% versus 23.0%).

The results were revealed at 2pm EDT; the stock was halted at 1:27pm (the timestamps in the table below reflect CDT) after trading became disorderly, with the price of the stock dropping from $24 to $7.60 in the space of 74 seconds on huge volume. About 20% of the outstanding shares are sold short, so an attack by shorts to drive down the share price prior to the news release might have been the cause. Here is a transcript of trades of 5000 shares or higher for that time span (welcome to the thrills of speculation in individual stocks):

Date               Time         Price     Bid        Ask       Volume
04/28/09    12:25:32    24.00    24.00    24.00    23241
04/28/09    12:25:33    23.9009    23.90    23.91    34558
04/28/09    12:25:34    23.87    23.85    23.86    16939
04/28/09    12:25:35    23.8201    23.82    23.83    10160
04/28/09    12:25:36    23.79    23.79    23.80    19824
04/28/09    12:25:37    23.74    23.74    23.75    17934
04/28/09    12:25:38    23.69    23.69    23.70    14608
04/28/09    12:25:38    23.50    23.54    23.52    22705
04/28/09    12:25:39    23.48    23.49    23.49    45632
04/28/09    12:25:40    23.39    23.36    23.36    13547
04/28/09    12:25:41    23.26    23.28    23.28    6713
04/28/09    12:25:42    23.16    23.18    23.16    41351
04/28/09    12:25:43    23.10    23.10    23.11    8625
04/28/09    12:25:44    23.06    23.07    23.03    7340
04/28/09    12:25:45    22.94    22.95    22.95    23119
04/28/09    12:25:45    22.88    22.88    22.88    18915
04/28/09    12:25:46    22.80    22.80    22.81    32609
04/28/09    12:25:47    22.70    22.73    22.74    56962
04/28/09    12:25:48    22.65    22.65    22.65    10025
04/28/09    12:25:49    22.60    22.60    22.61    49777
04/28/09    12:25:50    22.48    22.50    22.49    22448
04/28/09    12:25:51    22.27    22.26    22.26    8835
04/28/09    12:25:52    22.20    22.21    22.22    16603
04/28/09    12:25:53    22.17    22.14    22.14    12542
04/28/09    12:25:54    22.04    22.02    22.03    20680
04/28/09    12:25:55    21.91    21.90    21.89    24770
04/28/09    12:25:55    21.75    21.78    21.76    12600
04/28/09    12:25:56    21.67    21.67    21.67    18270
04/28/09    12:25:57    21.57    21.55    21.57    20541
04/28/09    12:25:58    21.57    21.55    21.56    27660
04/28/09    12:25:59    21.51    21.51    21.50    27494
04/28/09    12:26:00    21.47    21.45    21.46    24030
04/28/09    12:26:01    21.40    21.38    21.40    30947
04/28/09    12:26:02    21.31    21.31    21.32    15008
04/28/09    12:26:03    21.12    21.14    21.16    21697
04/28/09    12:26:03    21.02    21.01    21.02    10050
04/28/09    12:26:04    20.95    20.96    20.96    18694
04/28/09    12:26:06    20.70    20.73    20.71    8772
04/28/09    12:26:07    20.45    20.47    20.45    12111
04/28/09    12:26:09    20.15    20.25    20.24    21126
04/28/09    12:26:09    20.00    20.00    20.00    35143
04/28/09    12:26:09    19.88    19.83    19.82    11400
04/28/09    12:26:10    19.66    19.69    19.61    6941
04/28/09    12:26:11    19.51    19.51    19.51    11095
04/28/09    12:26:12    19.28    19.26    19.30    11767
04/28/09    12:26:12    18.95    18.92    18.93    24888
04/28/09    12:26:14    18.48    18.50    18.45    22455
04/28/09    12:26:14    18.31    18.05    18.20    13100
04/28/09    12:26:15    17.69    17.90    17.77    32711
04/28/09    12:26:16    17.42    17.44    17.43    8612
04/28/09    12:26:18    16.92    16.92    16.91    56096
04/28/09    12:26:18    16.50    16.59    16.58    25823
04/28/09    12:26:19    16.33    16.31    16.31    30658
04/28/09    12:26:20    15.93    15.92    15.93    73598
04/28/09    12:26:21    15.80    15.79    15.84    29116
04/28/09    12:26:22    15.30    15.30    15.30    42013
04/28/09    12:26:23    15.02    15.01    15.02    14536
04/28/09    12:26:23    14.92    15.00    14.95    26936
04/28/09    12:26:24    14.76    14.73    14.76    11981
04/28/09    12:26:25    14.28    14.56    14.27    11931
04/28/09    12:26:25    13.95    14.00    13.96    20961
04/28/09    12:26:26    13.51    13.30    13.39    19480
04/28/09    12:26:27    13.02    13.01    13.06    17296
04/28/09    12:26:27    12.62    12.82    12.60    46168
04/28/09    12:26:28    12.16    12.44    12.16    20999
04/28/09    12:26:29    11.95    11.94    11.94    18971
04/28/09    12:26:29    11.77    11.79    11.78    16200
04/28/09    12:26:30    11.41    11.49    11.49    8142
04/28/09    12:26:31    11.16    11.15    11.16    17261
04/28/09    12:26:31    11.03    11.02    11.03    29270
04/28/09    12:26:32    10.90    10.88    10.69    15902
04/28/09    12:26:33    10.31    10.31    10.31    35576
04/28/09    12:26:34    10.08    10.07    10.07    8750
04/28/09    12:26:34    10.03    10.03    10.03    12385
04/28/09    12:26:35    9.99    9.99    10.00    50073
04/28/09    12:26:36    9.69    9.70    9.71    84899
04/28/09    12:26:37    9.48    9.46    9.68    43556
04/28/09    12:26:38    9.46    9.47    9.66    33019
04/28/09    12:26:38    9.43    9.43    9.50    19150
04/28/09    12:26:39    9.50    9.48    9.48    21582
04/28/09    12:26:40    9.42    9.42    9.51    13484
04/28/09    12:26:40    9.47    9.30    9.64    31351
04/28/09    12:26:41    9.36    9.28    9.37    61854
04/28/09    12:26:42    9.10    9.11    9.31    93575
04/28/09    12:26:42    8.98    9.00    9.00    36403
04/28/09    12:26:43    8.30    8.26    8.38    16609
04/28/09    12:26:44    8.15    8.15    8.20    16119
04/28/09    12:26:45    8.20    8.01    8.19    30193
04/28/09    12:26:45    8.01    8.00    8.01    23407
04/28/09    12:26:46    7.60    7.60    7.81    39797
04/28/09    12:26:47    8.51    8.02    8.29    82362
04/28/09    12:26:48    8.27    8.21    8.28    36652
04/28/09    12:26:48    8.87    8.56    8.79    73551
04/28/09    12:26:49    9.31    9.31    9.03    43732
04/28/09    12:26:50    9.61    9.63    9.87    23041
04/28/09    12:26:51    9.79    9.78    9.93    24426
04/28/09    12:26:51    10.00    10.07    10.34    23907
04/28/09    12:26:52    11.79    11.40    10.93    17420
04/28/09    12:26:53    11.45    11.38    11.74    12500
04/28/09    12:26:53    11.39    11.37    11.39    17057
04/28/09    12:26:54    11.18    11.17    11.23    21089
04/28/09    12:26:55    11.25    11.25    11.26    12900
04/28/09    12:26:56    11.37    11.35    11.45    28234
04/28/09    12:26:56    11.92    11.75    12.00    23090
04/28/09    12:26:57    11.79    11.78    11.80    18751
04/28/09    12:26:58    11.76    11.76    12.25    18768
04/28/09    12:26:58    11.77    11.77    12.32    9855
04/28/09    12:26:59    12.28    12.01    12.31    17050
04/28/09    12:27:00    12.37    12.37    12.43    17831
04/28/09    12:27:01    12.43    12.75    12.99    20971
04/28/09    12:27:02    12.36    12.28    12.00    32756
04/28/09    12:27:02    11.841    11.841    11.841    10900
04/28/09    12:27:04    11.81    11.81    11.81    100

If the stock opens again today—it is still halted pending the completion of the Dendreon presentation at the AUA meeing—it will be interesting to see where it settles. The company has scheduled a conference call to discuss the results at 1730 EDT today. If there is anything interesting to report, we will add a comment to this post.

Previous DNDN-related posts:

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