Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Posts Tagged ‘ELN’

Jul 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Sun, 10 Aug 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.50 150.00 -20.63% -74.62% -84.97% -70.00%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 33.22 1,893.54 -0.75% 43.00% 4.50% 3.48%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.72 745.44 12.60% 3.92% -58.54% -52.18%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 5.94 3,354.97 -8.65% 45.54% 76.51% 71.68%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.62 1,181.62 -2.60% -17.09% -37.73% -36.73%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.62 1,606.06 -2.60% -17.09% -15.29% -16.24%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 15.53 1,723.83 -2.33% -40.43% -21.65% -25.70%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 26.85 6,578.25 -8.67% 140.16% 173.91% 323.45%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 26.85 4,994.10 -8.67% 140.16% 137.34% 461.30%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 10.58 -639.54 31.87% 72.18% 71.84% 198.19%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 3.82 -817.48 31.42% 48.59% 65.12% 313.71%
cash -2,393.50 10,502.20
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 31,273.00 -7.71% 43.16% 212.73% 106.32%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 10,782.24 -2.28% -2.97% 7.82% 4.90%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,325.55 1.42% -12.32% -3.72% -2.38%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: We sold Elán (ELN) when further analysis of the Phase 2 results for bapineuzumab reported last month called into question the entire theory the anti-Alzheimer’s Disease drug is based on.

News:

Comments: POW! Following our best month of the year in June, we had our worst month ever in July, down 8%. We were outperformed by both the NASDAQ (+1%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (-2%); overall after 19 months of operations, the ISOP is now +213% compared with +8% for the hedgies and -4% for the NASDAQ.

Our energy plays led the decline, with our sick puppy TMY -21%, and both BZP and BQI down -9% and commodity prices faltered. Our miners were also down; GSS down 3% and SLT down 2%. Our remaining biotechs—after our sale of ELN—were mixed, with VRTX -1% and NBIX +13%. Our shorts performed well, with BZH declining 31% (+31% for us) and WB 32%.

If you are following our macro analysis, you know that we have been anticipating a market crash ever since the Fed started lowering rates nearly a year ago. We still expect the central banks to do their utmost to hold things together until (at least) after the Olympics to avoid embarrassing the Chinese and ideally until after the USA elections to avoid the risk that too many hard questions might be asked of the politicians.

But the Olympics end on 24 August, so the crash watch alert level will be going up a notch or two. Stay tuned.

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Jun 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Sat, 12 Jul 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.63 189.00 40.00% -68.02% -81.06% -67.28%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 35.55 4,585.95 41.97% 61.74% 154.62% 112.45%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 33.47 1,907.79 16.91% 44.08% 5.28% 4.38%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.19 662.02 -15.01% -7.71% -63.18% -59.39%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 6.50 3,672.50 42.23% 59.31% 93.21% 97.68%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.69 1,213.19 -9.12% -14.87% -36.07% -37.56%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.69 1,648.97 -9.12% -14.87% -13.03% -15.12%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 15.90 1,764.90 -28.18% -39.01% -19.79% -25.87%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 29.40 7,203.00 29.29% 162.97% 199.92% 499.51%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 29.40 5,468.40 29.29% 162.97% 159.88% 892.37%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 15.53 -921.69 34.75% 59.16% 59.42% 211.32%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 5.57 -1,191.98 19.86% 25.03% 49.14% 343.65%
cash -4,194.60 7,672.15
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 33,886.98 18.75% 55.12% 238.87% 126.92%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,033.81 -1.03% -0.71% 10.34% 6.83%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,292.98 -9.10% -13.55% -5.06% -3.43%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: None.

News:

Comments:

WOW! Our best month of the year: +19%. In fact, aside from our freaky Dendreon bonanza (up 78% in March 2007), this is our best month ever. We again beat both the NASDAQ (-9%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (-1%); overall after 18 months of operations, the ISOP is now a record high +239% compared with +10% for the hedgies and -5% for the NASDAQ.

Folks, it really isn’t this easy…or more precisely, the vaguaries of speculation being what they are, while it is feasible to be up big in a short period of time, it is just also easy to be down big. Case in point, TMY, which was up 40% this month on the buyout bid from Hong Kong—but overall is still down 68% for us. Or our biotech spec play NBIX, down another 15% this month and -60% overall in the wake of last year’s surprise recjection by the FDA of their insomnia remedy. Or GSS, our gold miner with the lingering production cost issues, down another 9% this month.

Of course, on balance, the good outweighed the bad this month. On the strength of nearly doubled reserve estimates, BQI was up 42% to lead the port, along with ELN which despite mixed results on their Alzheimer’s drug was also up 42%. The big picture for banking and housing continued to decline in June, and our short positions were strong again: WB up 35% and BZH up 20%. BZP was up 29% on the news that they were finally shipping crude and VRTX was up 17% despite somewhat disappointing news on the design of the phase 3 trials for telaprevir. SLT dropped 28% on concern they may end up overpaying for Asarco.

While there is a temptation to sell off everything and just sit on the funds for the next six months—we are up 55% YTD and it’s hard to imagine the hedgies or market catching us by December—we still think the market holds it together through the Olympics at least and the USA election most probably, and so we are holding pat here. Should we get a decline, then we will have to review the energy plays and possibly the mining and biotech plays, and we could be looking for more shorting opportunities.

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May 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 12 Jun 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.45 135.00 -13.46% -77.16% -86.47% -75.93%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 25.04 3,230.16 -4.75% 13.92% 79.34% 65.79%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 28.63 1,631.91 12.19% 23.25% -9.94% -8.95%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.93 778.94 -9.21% 8.59% -56.68% -55.82%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 4.57 2,582.05 5.06% 12.01% 35.84% 41.55%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.96 1,334.96 -10.84% -6.33% -29.65% -33.41%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.96 1,814.48 -10.84% -6.33% -4.30% -5.57%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 22.14 2,457.54 6.49% -15.07% 11.69% 18.50%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 22.74 5,571.30 16.74% 103.40% 131.98% 391.59%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 22.74 3,623.28 16.74% 103.40% 101.01% 722.76%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 23.80 -1,414.46 18.35% 37.42% 37.42% 167.12%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 6.95 -1,487.30 37.22% 6.46% 36.54% 446.33%
cash -4,194.60 7,672.15
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 28,536.37 7.96% 30.63% 185.36% 110.98%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,148.64 1.84% 0.32% 11.49% 8.05%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,522.66 4.55% -4.89% 4.55% 3.15%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: In the long run, we like oil, as the continuing buildout in Asia will ensure demand tends to challenge supply, and it also serves as a hedge against the declining dollar. Be that as it may, $125/barrel seems too high, too soon to us, and accordingly we took a position in an inverse ETF that goes up 2x any daily decline in the price of crude (and vice versa). However, the market disagrees, and it only took six days and a high print of $132.78 to decrement our position by 10%. Mindful of John Maynard Keynes’ famous oberservation that “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” we hit the silk. In March, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a spike as high as $200/barrel. While we still think that is unlikely anytime soon, we’re no longer willing to bet on a near-term decline.

News:

Comments:

Another excellent month, up 8%. We beat both the NASDAQ (+5%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (+2%) for the fourth time in five tries this year. The big picture for banking and housing clouded up in May, and our short positions lead the port for the month: BZH up 37% and WB up 18%. On the energy front, BZP was up 17% on continued strength in the price of oil and improved reserves data, BQI was up 5% and the outlier was TMY, which produced nothing but more bad news and sank another 13%. Our biotech plays were mixed: VRTX was up 12% on no particular news, ELN lost 5% and NBIX shed 9%. On the mining front, SLT was up 5% but GSS was decimated (approximately) by 11%.

We still think the market holds it together through the Olympics at least and the USA election most probably. By around then we will have to review the energy plays and possibly the mining and biotech plays, and we could be looking for more shorting opportunities.

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