Macro Tsimmis

intelligently hedged investment

Posts Tagged ‘qqqq’

SELL ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ), Short Dow30 (DOG), & Short S&P 500 (SH)

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 04 Nov 10

Well, either you’re closing your eyes
To a situation you do not wish to acknowledge
Or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated
By the presence of a pool table in your community.
Ya got trouble, my friend, right here,
I say, trouble right here in River City.

Thank you, Harold Hill. Yes, indeed, we got trouble, all right.

The economic toilet is still stopped up with unsalable toxic assets that our government in collusion with the banksters that created and peddled them refuse to reprice reasonably, principally derivatives but also mortgages on underwater properties. (They refuse because honestly marking these assets to market would cause several TBTF duckpins to fall into insolvency and make it really hard for them to pay out their bonuses, or deliver their political contributions, to say nothing of being able to offer cushy sinecures to “deserving” former regulators.) Meanwhile, the Fed continues to artificially dampen interest rates and attempt to flush more money into the toilet in order to encourage folks to buy—and thus maintain the fictional value of—overpriced assets. Of course because they refuse to fix the toilet, it is overflowing and the excess dollars are spilling out into China and India and Brazil and most everywhere else, roiling those countries’ economies.

Meantime, our government, amid the first detonations of the baby boomer demographic time bomb, has spent two years pondering the looming entitlements funding chasm and has ultimately decided to increase our commitments via Obamacare. Meanwhile, we are still bleeding money in Iraq and Afghanistan, still running a huge trade deficit, and with unrelenting salvos of anti-small-business bombardments (Obamacare regulations and levies, financial reform regulations, reinstitution of the estate tax, increase of the income tax), have helped to stymie private sector job growth, and real unemployment is stuck around 17%.

And many state governments such as California and Illinois—not to mention national governments such as the PIIGS—face immediate sovereign debt issues more acute than the Feds.

Whoa! Are we going short here, or covering our shorts?

We are covering them. And the reason we are covering them is not because we think things are looking up. We have been short the US equity indices as insurance against a black swan event, and we do not think that the risks there have appreciably narrowed. But the dogged initiatives of the Federal Reserve to maintain higher asset prices have created a new, overriding risk: the risk that the oversupply of dollars will drive the value of the greenback down so effectively that asset prices, while they may not actually increase in absolute value, will increase significantly in nominal dollar value. In other words, the risks of being short equities here in dollar terms now exceeds the upside, because even in the event of a black swan event that depresses asset valuations in real terms, the relative value of those assets as measured in dollars could still increase.

So, while we still believe the efforts of the U.S. government to maintain these overvalued asset prices in the face of market pressure to reprice them at their real value are doomed fail, the risk that the dollar will suffer collateral damage in this inglorious attempt to alter reality has become acute, and accordingly, we are closing these short positions.

Previous DOG/PSQ/SH-related posts:

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BUY ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ), Short Dow30 (DOG), & Short S&P 500 (SH)

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 06 May 10

We’re back short again as of the close today.

We believe that the optimism the market has reflected in the 80% surge in the S&P 500 index between 9 March 2009 and 23 April 2010 has been way overdone. While massive government intervention averted the collapse of many large financial institutions and huge stimulus programs have slowed the decline in residential real estate to a crawl and enticed the consumer to increase spending (at the expense of reducing the USA national savings rate from 5% to 3%), the so-called recovery has not produced any jobs or increase in income. What will happen when the surge of government stimulus dissipates? Meanwhile, private debt levels are still problematic and the commercial real estate situation continues to worsen.

Furthermore, US government policy continues to favor propping up the zombie banks and keeping the easy credit spigots open, and has exacerbated the strategic problem by not only failing to address the long-term structural problem of unsustainable entitlement obligations but has actually dug us deeper into the hole by focusing on so-called health insurance reform. In effect, our solution to the public and private addiction to profligate indebtedness thus far has been to vastly increase our indebtedness! While these policies have been successful in staving off “systemic risk” defaults, they will only postpone the day of reckoning.

But that is not why we are going short today in particular. We actually had been persuaded that the illusion of recovery had been so artfully contrived that the cracks in the foundation would remain hard to discern at least thru the 2010 elections. Unfortunately for the goldman behind the curtain, PIIGS happen. (That is, Portugual-Italy-Ireland-Greece-Spain, all with more or less severe sovereign debt issues.) The Eurozone political class have proven considerably less adept at implementing their own bailout in the case of Greece than USA policy makers were in 2008-09 with Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Citibank, Bear Stearns, et al. As a consequence, systemic risk is up, and we are moving to protect capital here.

We are going with the Proshares Short QQQ (PSQ) ETF, whose managers “seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index,” their Short DOW 30 (DOG) ETF, aimed at achieving “daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index,” and their Short S&P 500 (SH) ETF, which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P500® Index.”

Previous DOG/PSQ/SH-related posts:

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Volatility declines again in 4Q09

Posted by intelledgement on Fri, 12 Feb 10

Here is a link to our 4Q09 update on volatility, “So Far, It’s Not Like the 1930s,” published on The Motley Fool website. Of course, volatility has picked up considerably in 1Q10…it will be interesting to revisit this analysis in April.

In the meantime, here are a couple of pertinent charts that did not make the final cut. The first one shows the volatility level of the S&P 500 from inception through 2009.

The second one compares the patterns of volatility of the 1929 crash with the 2008 crash:

These charts present the same data included in the article, but there—for technical editorial reasons—it is in tabular form.

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BUY iShares Dow Jones US Technology ETF (IYW)

Posted by intelledgement on Tue, 29 Sep 09

OK, we are going against the macros here but we plead temporary insanity.

The USA economy still has the Debt of Damocles—created by our profligate spending and indebtedness—hanging over it. While we have flooded the world with fiat currency liquidity to avert a deflationary spiral, almost nothing has been done to place limits on the use of leverage by financial institutions, nor even to increase visibility with respect to the trading of the financial WMDs—mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, and the like—that zoomed us into trouble faster than we realized. Meanwhile, most of the “toxic assets” created during our binge remain on the books of institutions deemed “too big to fail.” The residential real estate market, despite being goosed with the $8,000 tax credit—akin to pouring gasoline on a fire when we should be trying to deleverage—has failed to deal with the inventory of foreclosed homes, with many more on the way. The commercial real estate market faces a potentially calamitous wave of refinancing of projects that are no longer worth enough to cover the debt. Unemployment continues to rise and the average credit card debt per household was $8329 as of the end of 2008.

We’re in a deep hole, but the government keeps digging. Support for the zombie banks that was initiated by the Bush administration has continued apace with the Obama administration (even to the point of being run by the same guys). Interest rates are artificially low, and the secular decline of the dollar has accelerated, or at least spurted ahead. The government not only has stepped up current spending with the so-called stimulus package, but shows no inclination to rein in ruinous projected future spending on entitlements—indeed the main debate now is over how big an additional commitment of future tax payer dollars to make to support “health care reform.” Policymakers are so far out of touch with reality that they enacted a program encouraging consumers to take on additional debt (“cash-for-clunkers”).

All this will not end well. So…why is the NASDAQ up 35% on the year, and up 68% since the 9 Mar 09 low? Well, we could say that the velocity of job losses—the rate at which the rate of unemployment is growing—has slowed. We could say that 2Q09 results were surprisingly good, in terms of profitability, although revenue generally was flat to down. We could say that housing prices appear to have plateaued here (no long declining). We could say that China’s stimulus package worked a lot better than ours, putting money directly into the hands of consumers and encouraging them to spend without creating any additional debt, and consequently economic growth in China got a boost. (Of course, that maneuver is a lot easier when your government cash flow numbers are positive.) We could say that confidence is up, as evidenced by the rise in the stock market…oh, wait a minute…that’s the effect we are trying to explain in the first place…never mind.

The honest answer is we don’t know why the market is up so sharply. The torrent of liquidity the central banks unleashed averted what would have been in our view a salutary cleansing crash putting a lot of ne’er-do-wells out of business, but the collective wisdom of the market is evidently that this is a good thing. Who knows; maybe postponing the battle will enable the ne’er-do-wells to transform into heros and ultimately prevail. Yeah, right.

OK, so it may be insane, but it is happening…so, let’s examine the case for the bulls. While we don’t believe it holds water, if it does, then

  1. The economy has ceased to contract and will start expanding now
  2. The consumer will continue spending money at a gradually expanding rate
  3. Emerging markets will continue growing faster; demand for commodities will rise again
  4. Most countries will continue to gain more from free trade than they lose
  5. Inflation will resurface sooner rather than later

These are all conditions that favor the high tech sector. On the business side, productivity is at a premium in an expanding market where labor is tighter and—in an environment with a bias in favor of free trade—global competition militates efficiency. On the consumer side, an ever-expanding global middle class will stoke increasing demand for the latest and greatest entertainment and personal productivity products.

Accordingly, we are going with the iShares Dow Jones US Technology EFT (IYW) here. All things being equal, we would prefer an international fund, but the only one that has done better this year than IYW (+42% to +26%) is the SPDR S&P International Technology Sector ETF (IPK) and it is way too small and too thinly traded ($0.011B in assets trading 5000 shares per day). Also it is not a genuine international fund as it excludes ex-USA technical companies. No problem, high tech is international in terms of customers anyway.

We would have gone with a NASDAQ index fund but the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) unaccountably trails the underlying index  this year (+23% to +35%), and the First Trust NASDAQ-100-Tech Index ETF (QTEC) is +33% but again too small and thinly traded ($0.028B in assets and 35,000 shares per day).

So the IYW it is. This ETF “seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the largest public companies in the technology sector of the U.S. market, as represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index.” Microsoft, Apple, IBM, Cisco, Google, Intel, and Qualcom are all among their top ten holdings. They have over a billion in assets and trading volume is north of 400,000 shares/day. The P/E is running around 26 and the yield is about half-a-percent. For more information, check out iShares’ website.

We are taking this position to avoid being inundated in the rising tide of optimism; we want to participate in this ebullient upside. However, because we do expect this tide to turn—and, of course, it’s quite possible it already has!—we will tolerate no more than a ten percent loss here.

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Jul 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Sun, 10 Aug 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.50 150.00 -20.63% -74.62% -84.97% -70.00%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 33.22 1,893.54 -0.75% 43.00% 4.50% 3.48%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.72 745.44 12.60% 3.92% -58.54% -52.18%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 5.94 3,354.97 -8.65% 45.54% 76.51% 71.68%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.62 1,181.62 -2.60% -17.09% -37.73% -36.73%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.62 1,606.06 -2.60% -17.09% -15.29% -16.24%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 15.53 1,723.83 -2.33% -40.43% -21.65% -25.70%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 26.85 6,578.25 -8.67% 140.16% 173.91% 323.45%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 26.85 4,994.10 -8.67% 140.16% 137.34% 461.30%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 10.58 -639.54 31.87% 72.18% 71.84% 198.19%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 3.82 -817.48 31.42% 48.59% 65.12% 313.71%
cash -2,393.50 10,502.20
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 31,273.00 -7.71% 43.16% 212.73% 106.32%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 10,782.24 -2.28% -2.97% 7.82% 4.90%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,325.55 1.42% -12.32% -3.72% -2.38%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: We sold Elán (ELN) when further analysis of the Phase 2 results for bapineuzumab reported last month called into question the entire theory the anti-Alzheimer’s Disease drug is based on.

News:

Comments: POW! Following our best month of the year in June, we had our worst month ever in July, down 8%. We were outperformed by both the NASDAQ (+1%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (-2%); overall after 19 months of operations, the ISOP is now +213% compared with +8% for the hedgies and -4% for the NASDAQ.

Our energy plays led the decline, with our sick puppy TMY -21%, and both BZP and BQI down -9% and commodity prices faltered. Our miners were also down; GSS down 3% and SLT down 2%. Our remaining biotechs—after our sale of ELN—were mixed, with VRTX -1% and NBIX +13%. Our shorts performed well, with BZH declining 31% (+31% for us) and WB 32%.

If you are following our macro analysis, you know that we have been anticipating a market crash ever since the Fed started lowering rates nearly a year ago. We still expect the central banks to do their utmost to hold things together until (at least) after the Olympics to avoid embarrassing the Chinese and ideally until after the USA elections to avoid the risk that too many hard questions might be asked of the politicians.

But the Olympics end on 24 August, so the crash watch alert level will be going up a notch or two. Stay tuned.

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Jun 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Sat, 12 Jul 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.63 189.00 40.00% -68.02% -81.06% -67.28%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 35.55 4,585.95 41.97% 61.74% 154.62% 112.45%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 33.47 1,907.79 16.91% 44.08% 5.28% 4.38%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.19 662.02 -15.01% -7.71% -63.18% -59.39%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 6.50 3,672.50 42.23% 59.31% 93.21% 97.68%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.69 1,213.19 -9.12% -14.87% -36.07% -37.56%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.69 1,648.97 -9.12% -14.87% -13.03% -15.12%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 15.90 1,764.90 -28.18% -39.01% -19.79% -25.87%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 29.40 7,203.00 29.29% 162.97% 199.92% 499.51%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 29.40 5,468.40 29.29% 162.97% 159.88% 892.37%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 15.53 -921.69 34.75% 59.16% 59.42% 211.32%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 5.57 -1,191.98 19.86% 25.03% 49.14% 343.65%
cash -4,194.60 7,672.15
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 33,886.98 18.75% 55.12% 238.87% 126.92%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,033.81 -1.03% -0.71% 10.34% 6.83%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,292.98 -9.10% -13.55% -5.06% -3.43%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: None.

News:

Comments:

WOW! Our best month of the year: +19%. In fact, aside from our freaky Dendreon bonanza (up 78% in March 2007), this is our best month ever. We again beat both the NASDAQ (-9%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (-1%); overall after 18 months of operations, the ISOP is now a record high +239% compared with +10% for the hedgies and -5% for the NASDAQ.

Folks, it really isn’t this easy…or more precisely, the vaguaries of speculation being what they are, while it is feasible to be up big in a short period of time, it is just also easy to be down big. Case in point, TMY, which was up 40% this month on the buyout bid from Hong Kong—but overall is still down 68% for us. Or our biotech spec play NBIX, down another 15% this month and -60% overall in the wake of last year’s surprise recjection by the FDA of their insomnia remedy. Or GSS, our gold miner with the lingering production cost issues, down another 9% this month.

Of course, on balance, the good outweighed the bad this month. On the strength of nearly doubled reserve estimates, BQI was up 42% to lead the port, along with ELN which despite mixed results on their Alzheimer’s drug was also up 42%. The big picture for banking and housing continued to decline in June, and our short positions were strong again: WB up 35% and BZH up 20%. BZP was up 29% on the news that they were finally shipping crude and VRTX was up 17% despite somewhat disappointing news on the design of the phase 3 trials for telaprevir. SLT dropped 28% on concern they may end up overpaying for Asarco.

While there is a temptation to sell off everything and just sit on the funds for the next six months—we are up 55% YTD and it’s hard to imagine the hedgies or market catching us by December—we still think the market holds it together through the Olympics at least and the USA election most probably, and so we are holding pat here. Should we get a decline, then we will have to review the energy plays and possibly the mining and biotech plays, and we could be looking for more shorting opportunities.

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May 08 Intelledgement Speculative Opportunity Portfolio Report

Posted by intelledgement on Thu, 12 Jun 08

Position Purchased Shares Paid Cost Now Value Change YTD ROI CAGR
TMY 03-Jan-07 300 3.30 998.00 0.45 135.00 -13.46% -77.16% -86.47% -75.93%
ELN 04-Apr-07 129 13.90 1,801.10 25.04 3,230.16 -4.75% 13.92% 79.34% 65.79%
VRTX 18-Apr-07 57 31.65 1,812.05 28.63 1,631.91 12.19% 23.25% -9.94% -8.95%
NBIX 22-May-07 158 11.33 1,798.14 4.93 778.94 -9.21% 8.59% -56.68% -55.82%
BQI 13-Jul-07 565 3.35 1,900.75 4.57 2,582.05 5.06% 12.01% 35.84% 41.55%
GSS 19-Jul-07 451 4.19 1,897.69 2.96 1,334.96 -10.84% -6.33% -29.65% -33.41%
GSS 24-Aug-07 613 3.08 1,896.04 2.96 1,814.48 -10.84% -6.33% -4.30% -5.57%
SLT 5-Oct-07 111 19.75 2,200.25 22.14 2,457.54 6.49% -15.07% 11.69% 18.50%
BZP 19-Nov-07 245 9.77 2,401.65 22.74 5,571.30 16.74% 103.40% 131.98% 391.59%
BZP 30-Jan-08 186 11.27 2,104.22 22.74 3,623.28 16.74% 103.40% 101.01% 722.76%
WB 1-Feb-08 -57 39.99 -2,271.43 23.80 -1,414.46 18.35% 37.42% 37.42% 167.12%
BZH 24-Mar-08 -214 10.99 -2,343.86 6.95 -1,487.30 37.22% 6.46% 36.54% 446.33%
cash -4,194.60 7,672.15
ISOP 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 28,536.37 7.96% 30.63% 185.36% 110.98%
Global HF 03-Jan-07 10,000.00 11,148.64 1.84% 0.32% 11.49% 8.05%
NASDAQ 03-Jan-07 2,415.29 2,522.66 4.55% -4.89% 4.55% 3.15%

Position = symbol of the security for each position
Purchased = date position acquired (for long positions) or sold (for short positions)
Shares = number of shares long or short in the portfolio
Paid = price per share
Cost = what portfolio paid (including commission); note for short sales, the portfolio gains cash
Now = price per share as of the date of the report
Value = what it is worth as of the date of the report (# shrs multiplied by price per share plus—or minus for short positions—the value of dividends)
Change = Change since last report (not applicable for positions new since last report)
Year-to-Date = Change since 31 Dec 07
Return on Investment = on a percentage basis, the performance of this security since purchase
Compounded Annual Growth Rate = annualized ROI for this position since purchase (to help compare apples to apples)

Notes: The benchmark for the ISOP is the Greenwich Alternative Investments Global Hedge Fund Index, which historically (1988 to 2007 inclusively) provides a CAGR of around 15.1%. For comparison’s sake, we also show the NASDAQ index, which over the same time frame has yielded a CAGR of around 10.1%. Note that for the portfolio, dividends are added back into the value of the pertinent security and not included in the “cash” total (this gives a more complete picture of the ROI for dividend-paying securities). Also, the “Cost” figures include a standard $8 commission and there is a 2% rate of interest on the listed cash balance.

Transactions: In the long run, we like oil, as the continuing buildout in Asia will ensure demand tends to challenge supply, and it also serves as a hedge against the declining dollar. Be that as it may, $125/barrel seems too high, too soon to us, and accordingly we took a position in an inverse ETF that goes up 2x any daily decline in the price of crude (and vice versa). However, the market disagrees, and it only took six days and a high print of $132.78 to decrement our position by 10%. Mindful of John Maynard Keynes’ famous oberservation that “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” we hit the silk. In March, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a spike as high as $200/barrel. While we still think that is unlikely anytime soon, we’re no longer willing to bet on a near-term decline.

News:

Comments:

Another excellent month, up 8%. We beat both the NASDAQ (+5%) and the Global Hedge Fund Index (+2%) for the fourth time in five tries this year. The big picture for banking and housing clouded up in May, and our short positions lead the port for the month: BZH up 37% and WB up 18%. On the energy front, BZP was up 17% on continued strength in the price of oil and improved reserves data, BQI was up 5% and the outlier was TMY, which produced nothing but more bad news and sank another 13%. Our biotech plays were mixed: VRTX was up 12% on no particular news, ELN lost 5% and NBIX shed 9%. On the mining front, SLT was up 5% but GSS was decimated (approximately) by 11%.

We still think the market holds it together through the Olympics at least and the USA election most probably. By around then we will have to review the energy plays and possibly the mining and biotech plays, and we could be looking for more shorting opportunities.

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